The headlines want you to believe that the conflict in northern Ethiopia wrapped up neatly the moment federal forces pushed into major regional hubs. It didn't. When a rebel commander publicly vows to keep fighting after losing the territorial capital of Mekelle, you aren't looking at a defeated movement. You're looking at a transition into guerrilla warfare.
The Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) finds itself cornered, yet its leadership refuses to vanish quietly. Debretsion Gebremichael and other senior figures insist the struggle continues, transforming what was once a conventional military campaign into a protracted insurgency. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's administration claims the rebels are violating the 2022 Pretoria peace agreement by hoarding weapons and conscripting young locals. Meanwhile, the reality on the ground remains brutal, marked by recent drone strikes and mounting civilian casualties that prove peace is still a distant mirage.
The Disarmament Deadlock and Broken Promises
Peace deals look great on paper in Pretoria, but they rarely survive the friction of local politics and unaddressed grievances. Prime Minister Abiy's government argues it has exhausted every diplomatic and administrative option to integrate the region. Officials point fingers at the TPLF, accusing them of bypassing disarmament mandates to rebuild their military capability.
You have to look at the incentive structures here. When regional leaders feel that surrender means complete political erasure or vulnerability to rival security forces, laying down arms stops looking like an option. Instead of disarmament, recruitment drives continue in pockets of the countryside. Trust evaporated long ago, and every airstrike or skirmish widens the chasm between Addis Ababa and the local population.
Shifting Tactics from Conventional Warfare to Insurgency
Losing urban centers like Mekelle changes the math for any armed group, but it doesn't automatically spell total defeat. Guerrilla forces don't need skyline towers or bureaucratic offices to wage a war of attrition. They need rugged terrain, sympathetic or fearful rural communities, and a steady supply of small arms.
Tigrayan commanders are banking on terrain and tactical dispersion. They are urging fighters to strike government-held positions despite massive federal advantages in drone technology and heavy artillery. Military analysts warn that this shift makes the conflict harder to contain and impossible to declare "won" through a simple flag-raising ceremony in a regional capital. Urban capture is not the same as pacification.
The Looming Threat of Regional Spillover
Wars in the Horn of Africa never stay neatly inside domestic borders. The renewed violence in northern Ethiopia carries heavy geopolitical baggage, particularly regarding tense relations with neighboring Eritrea. Addis Ababa's advancing federal troops and the ongoing rebel resistance keep regional capitals on edge.
If the TPLF manages to sustain a low-intensity insurgency, external actors will inevitably get pulled into the orbit of instability. Eritrea's leadership watches the northern border closely, and any miscalculation by federal commanders risks expanding a localized rebellion into a multi-state crisis.
The assumption that territorial conquest equals total victory is a dangerous illusion. Until political accommodations replace military crackdowns, northern Ethiopia will remain a volatile fracture zone.
