Every single awards season brings the exact same nervous conversation to Los Angeles dining rooms and trade publication bullpens. Studios roll out a fresh batch of emotional heavy-hitters designed to make Academy voters tear up, stand up, and check off a ballot box for Best Picture. We get underdogs, triumph over adversity, and stories that look suspiciously engineered in a pitch meeting to check every prestige box.
This year, four distinct films are fighting for that elusive crowd-pleaser slot in the Best Picture race. But looking past the glossy marketing campaigns and the red carpet hype, most of them are going to trip over their own formulaic feet before nomination morning arrives. Let us break down who stands a fighting chance and who is just taking up space.
The Self Mythologizing Trap of I Play Rocky
When an actor decides to write a film about the chaotic birth of a classic movie and insists on controlling the narrative, alarm bells should ring. Peter Farrelly directs this look at Sylvester Stallone fighting to star in his own boxing masterpiece. It leans heavily into nostalgia, determination, and the kind of scrappy self-mythology that Hollywood insiders usually eat up with a spoon.
Metacritic tells a different story, though. Sitting at a lukewarm 68, the film lacks the universal critical fire required to carry a Best Picture bid deep into January. Anthony Ippolito plays Stallone as a quixotic, lovable dreamer, supported by Tracy Letts growling through standard studio executive resistance. Sure, the bullmastiff steals scenes, and audiences will probably cheer when the iconic theme song blares. But charm alone rarely wins top prizes unless the artistic execution matches the ambition. Hollywood loves stories about Hollywood, but this one feels too much like a rerun.
The A24 Logistical Pileup Facing Club Kid
Then you have A24 throwing another contender into an already overloaded ring with Club Kid. Jordan Firstman writes, directs, and stars in this frantic story about a queer club promoter who has his wild lifestyle upended by the sudden arrival of a ten-year-old son. Producer Alex Coco previously won Best Picture with Anora, which shares a similarly chaotic, high-energy pulse.
Unlike the boxing biopic, the critical reception here is fierce, pulling an 80 on Metacritic. Firstman handles vulnerability well, and young actor Reggie Absolom delivers a grounded performance that keeps the emotional stakes from floating away. The problem is not the quality. The problem is studio cannibalism. A24 has an embarrassment of riches this year, running campaigns for multiple heavy hitters simultaneously. Firstman will likely secure a well-deserved original screenplay nomination, but Best Picture feels like a bridge too far when the distribution house is splitting its own focus.
Why Being Heumann Hits Hard But Misses the Mark
Activism on film is tricky territory. Siân Heder, who co-wrote and directed the previous Best Picture winner CODA, returns with Being Heumann, chronicling disability rights pioneer Judy Heumann. Ruth Madeley steps into the lead role with plenty of fire, refusing to soften the activist's sharp edges or play into polite cinematic tropes.
The movie sits at a 63 on Metacritic, and that score feels entirely earned. While the historical impact of Heumann's work is undeniable—just look around any modern public sidewalk or accessible building—the narrative structure leans too heavily into predictable biopic beats. It lacks the raw emotional catharsis that propelled CODA to victory. The Academy honors important historical figures regularly, but when the filmmaking feels formulaic, voters tend to leave it out of the top tier category.
Peak Dad Core Energy in Mr. Irrelevant
Paramount brings us Mr. Irrelevant, starring David Corenswet as John Tuggle, the final player chosen in the 1983 NFL draft who faces a devastating cancer diagnosis just as his career begins. Michael Shannon steps in as legendary Giants coach Bill Parcells, bringing instant gravitas to the sidelines.
This is textbook holiday viewing designed for families looking for an inspirational sports cry. It has yet to screen widely for critics, but test scores were high enough for Paramount to hand it a prized Christmas Day release slot. Expect dads across the country to pack theaters for the holidays. Do not expect Oscar voters to bite. The Academy rarely awards traditional football tearjerkers Best Picture nominations, no matter how hard everyone tries to run wind sprints in the rain afterward.
What Actually Wins the Slot
When the dust settles on nomination morning, the Academy usually rejects the calculated crowd-pleaser in favor of something with actual artistic teeth. If any of these four sneak in, it will be because the preferential voting ballot created a bizarre mathematical anomaly. Do not bet on it. Studios will keep manufacturing these emotional safety blankets every single autumn, hoping to recapture past glory. Most of the time, they just end up as expensive footnotes on Oscar night.
