Donald Trump walked into the global economic security session at the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains, looked around the room at the assembled world leaders, and dropped a characteristic line.
"I'm the boss."
It played like a joke. The room laughed. But underneath the typical theatrical bravado, the three-day summit in France proved that his words weren't entirely empty. The real story out of Evian isn't that Trump claims to run the show, but that European leaders actually managed to nudge him closer to their way of thinking on Ukraine.
For months, the conventional wisdom said a second Trump presidency would mean immediate abandonment for Kyiv. Instead, this summit ended with a unified pledge of support, fresh sanctions against Russia, and a surprising admission from the US President that Vladimir Putin needs to make a deal.
The Shift in the US Stance on Russia
If you looked at the G7 summit in Canada last year, the contrast is stark. That meeting ended in a mess with zero consensus on Ukraine. This time, French President Emmanuel Macron declared the Evian summit a massive success, specifically pointing out a real change in approach from Washington.
What changed? The reality on the ground.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy arrived in France armed with proof that his military strategy is working. He showed Trump direct imagery of the recent devastating Russian strike on Kyiv's historic Pechersk Lavra monastery. More importantly, he brought data on Ukraine's deep drone incursions into Russian territory.
The strategy worked. Zelenskyy convinced Trump that Russia isn't winning this war and is in no position to dictate terms.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney noted that the new US position is tougher on Russia and much more realistic about the actual situation on the ground. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz also expressed rare optimism, noting that Trump listened attentively and showed a highly cooperative attitude throughout the meetings. Trump himself told reporters that Russia should make peace because too many young men are dying on both sides of the battlefield.
The Looming Oil Sanctions and the Iran Factor
While the rhetoric sounded great, the actual mechanics of this diplomatic shift tie directly back to energy markets. Trump arrived in France riding high on a preliminary memorandum of understanding to end the conflict with Iran.
That tentative Iran deal changes the math for Russian oil.
Because an interim accord with Tehran has stabilized global energy markets, Trump announced that Washington is now in a position to let sanctions waivers lapse on Russian oil exports. For months, European allies were deeply troubled by US waivers allowing Russian oil cargoes already at sea to bypass restrictions. Now, Trump signals he is ready to tighten that noose.
But don't mistake this for a permanent alliance. Trump remains completely unpredictable. He explicitly told reporters that the Iran agreement isn't finalized. In true Trump fashion, he added a blunt warning to Tehran.
"If I don't like it, if they don't behave, we'll go right back to dropping bombs right smack in the middle of their head, OK?"
European diplomats are quietly terrified by this volatility. They worry an inexperienced US negotiating team might fail to secure a lasting nuclear or ballistic missile agreement, leaving Europe to deal with the fallout if the deal collapses and energy markets spike again.
Cracking Down on China and Securing Critical Minerals
The summit wasn't just a huddle over Ukraine. The Wednesday morning session where Trump made his "boss" comment focused heavily on global economic security, specifically the West's massive over-reliance on China.
Europe is currently panicked over a 360-billion-euro ($400 billion) trade surplus with Beijing. Analysts call this a "second China shock," as Chinese manufacturing moves up the value chain into high-tech goods, threatening European industrial cores.
The G7 leaders agreed to a new plan to combat this predatory competition.
- Aligned Stockpiling: Coordinating national reserves of critical minerals to prevent supply shocks.
- IEA Expansion: Giving the International Energy Agency a larger role in monitoring tech supply chains.
- Diversification: Funding mining and recycling capacity outside of Chinese control.
The friction lies in the execution. While the US proposed a dedicated trading bloc for critical minerals earlier this year, European nations are highly skeptical of how that works alongside an "America First" agenda. Building processing plants takes years, and nobody wants to get locked into an agreement that Trump might tear up if domestic political winds shift.
What This Means for the Future of the Conflict
Don't buy into the hype that a peace deal is happening tomorrow. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte correctly pointed out that it takes two to tango, and Vladimir Putin shows no actual signs of being ready to negotiate honestly.
Zelenskyy did secure commitments for increased air defense systems, which is a major victory for Kyiv as it tries to protect its crumbling energy grid. But everything still hinges on whether Trump maintains this tougher line once he returns to Washington. His history shows that commitments made at international summits can evaporate before Air Force One even lands back on American soil.
If you are tracking the geopolitical risks of this shift, look at the upcoming deadlines for US oil waivers next month. If Washington lets those waivers expire and actively targets Russian energy revenues without causing a massive spike in domestic gas prices, then we will know Trump is truly warming to Ukraine's war aims. If he blenches, the Evian summit was just theater.
Keep a close eye on the upcoming NATO defense ministers' meeting for the concrete hardware transfers that back up this sudden burst of G7 unity.
