The final American soldier has packed up and left Iraqi soil. More than two decades after tanks rolled into Baghdad to overthrow Saddam Hussein, the military footprint that defined a generation of foreign policy is officially gone.
If you think this exit marks a clean break or a neat conclusion to America's longest modern entanglements, you're missing the bigger picture. The departure, finalized at an air base in Erbil, closes a 12-year campaign against the Islamic State group under Operation Inherent Resolve. Yet, it leaves behind a tense, volatile vacuum that regional rivals and local factions are already rushing to fill.
The Reality Behind the Timeline
The timeline of this pullout started taking shape under President Joe Biden in 2024 and wrapped up under the Donald Trump administration. It wasn't a sudden panic or a midnight evacuation like the chaotic scenes out of Kabul. Instead, it was an orderly drawdown negotiated between Baghdad and Washington.
Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell noted that equipment and personnel departed smoothly. But let's look at the operational reality. The US military is not washing its hands of the region entirely. Central Command has shifted its task force headquarters to Jordan to keep tabs on lingering threats in neighboring Syria, and Washington plans to maintain targeted intelligence support.
Even so, the physical absence of US boots on the ground in Iraq alters the local balance of power overnight.
Who Actually Wins When America Leaves
Iran and the powerful armed groups it backs across Iraq are hailing this departure as a major victory. For years, these militias traded fire with US installations, particularly as regional tensions escalated. With American forces gone, these factions face fewer immediate constraints.
Meanwhile, local populations are deeply divided. In Baghdad, government officials staged handover ceremonies, celebrating what they branded as a restored era of national sovereignty. Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi took the podium to declare that taking full responsibility for internal security doesn't mean the fight against terrorism is over.
Walk north into the autonomous Kurdish region, however, and you'll hear a very different tune. Local security commanders and Peshmerga officials aren't celebrating. They're worried.
The Security Vacuum Left Behind
During the height of recent cross-border conflicts, the Kurdish north absorbed over a thousand drone and ballistic missile attacks. Local leaders relied heavily on American air defense systems and joint intelligence coordination. Now, those defenses are gone.
Beyond state-level threats, military analysts point to a stubborn network of Islamic State sleeper cells. When the US originally drew down its forces in 2011, a premature exit created the exact instability that allowed ISIS to surge back and capture a third of the country by 2014. While officials insist the group is now reduced to isolated cells rather than an organized territorial army, the risk of a regrouping cannot be ignored.
Can Iraqi security forces hold the line entirely on their own? That remains the million-dollar question.
What Happens Next
The departure of foreign troops forces Iraq into a high-stakes geopolitical tightrope walk.
- Internal Policing: Local security forces must step up patrols in remote desert regions and border zones where insurgent groups historically hide.
- Militia Control: The Iraqi government faces the immense challenge of disarming or reining in powerful armed factions that answered to a different chain of command.
- Intelligence Sharing: Relying on remote US intelligence feeds and cross-border task forces in Jordan will test the efficiency of modern military communication.
The 23-year experiment cost thousands of lives and trillions of dollars, reshaping both American politics and Iraqi society forever. Now, the training wheels are off. Iraq must navigate its own future while the ghosts of past conflicts loom large over the border.
US troops to leave Iraq, end ISIS combat mission by end of 2026
This video provides background details on the two-phase transition plan agreed upon to wrap up the Operation Inherent Resolve task force.
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